JW Decline

I don't think they can maintain their numbers with the easy access of information on the net. Retrieval of their own history, their foolish medical views early on, and their back and forth position on many subjects is quite damning. One does not have to read an anti-Witness book to become disillusioned. All one has to do is read their own literature, which is readily available now.

I also think that besides their vulnerablility from the outside, they are decaying from within. Until I came here 4 months ago, I had no idea, how severe the problems of child and spousal abuse were. Not until I read the thread "Unright Behavior vs the World" did I realize the depth of corruption in at least some of the congregations. The bad treatment of the Elders, I knew, but the severity and impact of it really hit hard when I read the thread "Panties or thongs"

I think the Organization is in even deeper trouble than I did when I started this thread just a little while back.

Welcome HCM,

only slightly newer than you.

Somebody mentioned France persecuting all non-Catholics. Seems like some things never change. That's how my family got to the NEW WORLD 250 years ago!!!

Thanks to whoever pointed out that Logical beat a hasty retreat, taking his comments with him. What a performance!!! I thought something was wrong w/ my web connection or such, at first. I would
have liked to see the comments, as their absence made holes in the continuity of the thoughts.

Mustang

The WTS is experiencing hard times and I suspect that things will get worse.
They have shown great resiliency in the past, however, and I wouldn't be
at all surprised to see the organization make some changes in coming years
and rebound.

Lee

They have made many changes in the past 5 years and the
most recent one about the "EVIL SLAVE" being cut assunder
the GB resigning has more faithful followers than ever scratching
their head.The only way they can save the publication part of
their empire is by throwing millons and millions at RAY and
praying he'd front the mess. Or what does a vital cult need a
charasmatic leader. Is Charlie getting out any time soon?
Think this organization can become the front for the anti-Christ?
Anything is possible I just think it's had it's day in the sun and
soon[25years or so] they will only be a foot note of one of those
cults with strange ideas.

since the subject of stats have been brought up again, I am putting this back up on the main board.

Thanks for renewing this topic Larc,

I would like to think that the Tower is in terminal decline but I
think they are too well established and experienced to fade away.
As the very old guard at the top die off, changes will be made
which make the religion more user friendly.They are so big now that
they don't have to sell their literature to outsiders they have a huge
captive audience.

The young will welcome the changes and more people will join. Don't
forget the huge growth in developing countries which will continue.
They have already shown that the majority will accept any changes
or control rather than face the pain of leaving. There will always be
those with the fickle herd mentality who will hang on in there.

larc asked Do you think the internet is partly resposible for this? What other factors are there, do you think?

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in my opinion not as much as many of us who have left would like to think- i feel that most of it is merely the fact the JW are getting TIRED most of the countries where there is no growth - those folks have been selling wt foolishness for 70-100yrs in many of those countries you are gettting into 3rd 4th and 5th genration jw
and they are still trying to sell the END IS ROUND THE CORNER

THE AVG JW TODAY doesn'T jump like they did yrs ago
take the bookstudy how many damn times can you study the same book with the same folks in the same bookstudy and still convince folks that it is for the new folks- when in the avg hall most of us saw very few folks from the Territory actually become jw

in all the yrs i have been here in my area i can count on one hand the actual number of folks who bevcame jw due to someone knocking on thier dooor

we meet many folks who would say MY MOMMY STUDIED WITH SISTER PIONEER WHEN I WAS growing up- they may take the literature but they will not study

while the NET has indeed played a very importatnt role for former jw in letting them see they are not alone- i dare say in a congo with 125 publishers you can count on one hand the number of bro and sister who actually go up on "aposates sites"

i think that will continue to change as he yrs go by , but in most congo the vast marjority dont even have a computer

what i will say is this the society's sharpest bro will continue to leave due to the NET and the constant LOAD THEY PLACE ON THEM

JUST MY 2

JAMES

PATHOF HORNS SAYS

What you have is:

a) old witnesses dying, getting sick, reducing activity due to age
b) younger witnesses not getting baptized/getting dfed/leaving
c) middle age witnesses asking questions/working more for retirement
d) no clear, inspiring leadership. No solid direction and basis for confidence

The reason for the decline is our own doing. Its not the internet. The internet is only going to contribute to the "dumbing down" of the flock as all the thinking and reasonable ones leave.

#########

I AGREE WITH YOU 100% SOON The only jw left as rank and file will be the "dumb ones" right now the sharpest bro and sister are getttingout - they are asking more questions while the "dumb ones" continue to say "WHATEVER THE SOCIETY SAYS"
wellmore andmore jw are simply not buying it anymore

your post was excellent

just my 2

james

stephen20 says

My firm feeling on this though is since 95 when the "this generation passing away" changed both from the moniker in the awake! and in the body of some articles. people felt real unsure of their future which by that time was suppose to be in the new system already.

The ones who expereinced the 1975 scenario, know the sacrifices that were made then, and looking at it with perspective , many children ,teens, and young couples were ROBBED in a royal way of a life they may have lived. Its an education, I am not crying in my beer(that would be a waste of beer) just merely pointing out, many, like myself who are in there 30's have to plan as RR said for the realities of life since the WTBTS , leaves us quite empty

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this post has indeed summed up the issues that the wt faces today and for years to come

just for the hell of it, ive composed a spreadsheet with stats for the world and USA back to 1969. i actually possess yearbooks back to 1950 and you cant get these stats from the CD so if you love stats, im your man :)

spreadsheet is available here for download
http://members-http-4.rwc1.sfba.home.net/aghull/stats/stats.xls

heres a chart of growth. note that the decrease in the laste 70s was a 'blip' as opposed to the current one which is definitely a 'trend'

another stat that i always wanted to be able to compile was the drop (amount of increase after you subtract the baptisms and death rate) you can see it here, these are the number of publishers that seem to have 'disappeared' in the last 12 years.

2000: 103351
1999: 158070
1998: 71580
1997: 138430
1996: 100162
1995: 36307
1994: 58768
1993: 58944
1992: 42499
1991: 36839
1990: 43732
1989: 35699
1988: 13715
1987: 25748

Moxy,

I really like your graph. I like stats myself. I think they really can show "the truth" when people are trying to snow you, e.g., the Society. I have some numbers somewhere that show that the steady decline goes back to the 1940's, and 1975 was just a short term perterbation in the data, due to false prophecy. Unfortunately, I am not to well organized and my data is in a cardboard box somewhere. If I run into it, I'll post it. I think your data back to 1950 will show what I am talking about, however.

thx larc, i was wondering if anyone read this thread anymore... i spent a lot of time on those stats :)

i will grab the 50-69 data too and add it. i wouldve except that the stats seemed quite different from 68 and earlier. they had one stat 'no of meetings', presumably they counted every meeting. but bizarrely, baptisms was absent. anybody have any idea why?

mox

Recently, there have been some brief discussions of JW numbers. I though I would bring back this lengthy discussion for those who missed it the first time around.

back again

Hey larc and all, RR, I wish I could remember where I saw that the SDA's membership had a precipitous decline from the 8 million you mentioned to somewhere around a few hundred thousand in just the past few years. The factors that path o thorns mentioned in conjunction with the internet is going to cause exactly the same thing. One more thing will as well. When I was service overseer, I was alarmed at the phantom ministry going on. Service was a social outing and for keeping up appearances in the congo. One elder I knew had it down to a science. He would go out in the great laundromat ministry early in the mornings furtively leaving magazines on the counters and never actually witnessing to anyone. Then he and his wife would meet with the group at 9am and then go home afterwards. It is my estimate that at least two-thirds of the brothers in the U.S. engage in a perpetual return visit ministry where the actual door-to-door work is non-extant. The only time even elders actually engage in field ministry is when CO's visit!I am glad to see it because it heralds their demise. Dino