British Sociologist Predicts Possible Collapse in Jehovah's Witness Numbers

A newly published article by British sociologist David Voas argues Jehovah's Witnesses may be about to experience a collapse in numbers. Contrary to claims by American sociologist Rodney Stark who predicts strong future growth for Jehovah's Witnesses, Voas shows that Jehovah's Witnesses' efforts at recruiting new members have become increasingly unsuccessful over the past few decades: the rate of increase has steadily declined, and the number of hours each publisher must preach to produce an extra convert has gone up substantially. Voas suggests a reason for the stagnation may be that there is a natural limit to the number of people in a given population that are susceptible to conversion to sectarian groups like Jehovah's Witnesses - the 'carrying capacity' of the population, and that the limit has largely been reached. If that's the case, Voas goes on to argue, as the further efforts of Jehovah's Witnesses meet little success, numbers may subsequently collapse rather than stagnate as disillusionment sets in.  

Extract from David Voas - The Trumpet Sounds Retreat: Learning from the Jehovah's Witnesses.

Equilibrium or Collapse?

With the growth of JWs in developed countries stagnating or declining after a long period of growth, one may be reminded of over-fishing in the North Atlantic, where the size of the fleet rapidly increases and then collapses. If there is a mechanism connecting poor recruitment to attrition - and the obvious suggestion is that lack of organizational success leads people to give up - then something similar could happen. 

In more technical terms, perhaps the appropriate population pattern is not the simple logistic (S-shaped) curve, but an 'overshoot-and-collapse' model, which in more specific contexts may be described as a potential outcome of a 'predator-prey' system. Without wishing to be pejorative, we may think of the evangelists as the predators, and the potential converts as the prey. With plenty of fish in the sea no problem exists: success is merely a matter of the fisherman's skill and effort and the fish's interest in what is being dangled before it. If too many people are attracted to become fishermen however, the result is over-fishing: stocks decline, productivity drops, the return on investment falls, and eventually some people leave the business. There may still be too many people chasing too few fish, though, particularly since stocks have been reduced, and over-fishing continues even as the number of fishermen declines. The time may come when there is insufficient incentive for anyone to continue fishing, even though there are still fish in the sea. In nature the predator-prey relationship would normally be cyclical, but extinction is possible if one group or the other falls below a sustainable level.

If publishers are discouraged by failure to recruit and are more tempted to become inactive, if they do not see their own efforts and those of fellow publishers rewarded, then the mechanism exists to produce an overshoot and then collapse in total numbers. A point may be reached where diminishing returns from field service become obvious and painful (with, for example, a lifetime of effort producing no conversions). People start to drift away from active participation. The intensity of evangelism is still such, however, that occasional converts are brought in; investment remains high. Attrition continues at a high level; recruitment is no longer high enough to compensate. Numbers will continue to fall.

The proselytizing orientation of the JWs makes them vulnerable to decline when conditions become unfavourable. The rewards of membership are found in possessing and proclaiming the truth, rather than in access to rituals, emotionally uplifting worship, or a range of social opportunities. Meetings resemble training seminars more than conventional religious services. The difficulty is that if recruitment appears to be the raison d'etre of activity, and then for extended periods not merely the individual publisher but the entire congregation experience no success, the consequential loss of morale could be substantial. If members stay firm in their faith and enjoy the solidarity that comes from mutual striving (however fruitless), the position is sustainable. If they are more like members of a pyramid scheme that must continue to grow in order to survive, however, the prospects may be bleak.

What happens after the onset of decline - whether there is a complete collapse or instead a cyclical variation around an equilibrium point - depends on the characteristics of those who become disaffected. If their time as active Witnesses has inoculated them against further spells in the organization - if, in other words, they do not return to the pool of potential recruits once they become inactive - then a major fall in numbers may result. If they return simply to occupy the same niche as before, however, and can be brought back into active service, then the prospects for the JWs are better; numbers will oscillate around the sustainable maximum.

Interesting.  I think this would affect other cults fishing the same waters (Mormons, scientologists, moonies, etc)

Do you have a link to the article?

From this book:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Centrality-Religion-Social-Life-Beckford/dp/0754665151/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1237343425&sr=1-1

I should add that David Voas also goes on to give some good reasons why Jehovah's Witnesses numbers may not collapse but stagnate instead, but I can't type it all out. In either case David Voas does not seem to much prospect for growth - it's either stagnation or collapse.

  "whether there is a complete collapse or instead a cyclical variation"

I'd go for the cyclical variation instead of complete collapse. And if the economy and other global conditions get worse their numbers will swell up before reaching equilibrium. It would be interesting to see these predators compete with other fundamentalists for the remaining unconverted prey.

Good article!

Let's hope the dude is right and even better there is a total collapse ;)

Not that it will help in the long run. There will be others cults come what may.

All the best,

Stephen

If they do collapse, that sure will take much of the fun out of being an apostate. I might lose my scary, demon-posessed aura.

and the number of hours each publisher must preach to produce an extra convert has gone up substantially

That may not have gone up as substatially as implied.  And I'm not looking at numbers in front of me.  But, from what I understand, the rules have changed allowing JWs to count more things that they couldn't count before.  Like counting as little as 15 minutes of time, counting studies with your family, etc.

So, they're probably not doing any more than they used to, but it allows them to count more.  So, total hours goes up, while actual door-to-door remains about the same.  More hours, same results = more hours to create a convert.

Don't know that anybody's factored that in.  Just sayin...

Jared Diamond's book Collapse indicates many civilizations collapse abruptly after reaching their zenith, so slowing incremental increase by the WTS is a warning sign that doesn't neccessarily indicate long stagnation.

I wouldn't too excited about what he says.

"one may be reminded of over-fishing in the North Atlantic" is a very poor example.  In this example the actual population decreases, not the proportion of the population likely to be caught in a net.

The rewards of membership are found in possessing and proclaiming the truth, rather than in access to rituals, emotionally uplifting worship, or a range of social opportunities. Meetings resemble training seminars more than conventional religious services. The difficulty is that if recruitment appears to be the raison d'etre of activity

Bingo!

Eureka!

Thus if I was truly evil and applied myself I could very easily transform the Corporation.........

This is what I have been talking about regarding "mainstreaming"and "mormonizing"....... If the Corp. expanded the rewards and adjusted a few interpretational "lighting" in more 'mainstream' ways it could see higher retention and make conversion more appealing.

Dubbies are feeling pressured left and right from Mother to give up every free moment for FS, doing current and approved WTS study, and donations, donations, donations!  Fudging FS and studies has never been easier and most who do drive around find themselves just leaving tracts without knocking. Hell you can set up a booth and spend the day catching up on a well disguised book wrapped in ministry ideaz book jackets!

There is no set date and we have been living in the 'end time' for longer then Noah preached!

The meeting are nothing but sales meetings now that the separate BS is gone .... and with the GB unwilling to commit to a study schedule for the BS part of the new consolidated night it leads me to believe soon that 25 minutes will be done away with too!... Think of the  $$$ saved by not printing out study books anymore except on rare occassion to replace or 'update' a conversion book!

Sink or Swim Boys

Damn it..... thought I hogtied that refomist voice in my head!

I say take the money and run Bethel Boys before you spend more then you receive!

That's why they have such catch phrases "But as for me, determined I will be, to serve in loyalty..." and "Loyal submission in recognition, this to our God we owe...".  Such are designed to prevent people that are in but not producing any results from walking out.

Interesting read!

The rewards of membership are found in possessing and proclaiming the truth, rather than in access to rituals, emotionally uplifting worship, or a range of social opportunities.

note "emotionally uplifting worship" and "range of social opportunities".  Assemblies are for some persons an utter flesh market where they can finally check out the hot studs and girls.............An assembly can be emotional uplifting if you allow to get carried away by the whim of today. But if you use your head......well........it's rather an emotional wearing experience. Ther meetings.....well.......the ROI here is quite bleak....you spent 4 hours (2 hours prep + 2 hours attendence) and what do you get?

Meetings resemble training seminars more than conventional religious services.

Sure enough. The 5 minute song and prayer are only about what you need to do. Check the any song. Hardly any song is related to praise. But mostly related to what you need to do...e.g. you are falling short again! So is prayer. It in effect says this: listen Lord, we're stupid so we need you spirit to understand your ideas. On top of being stupid for not understanding we're being stupid for sinning. So we need you spirit to do the right thing. We know you find sinning heavily offensive (why do we like it by the way?) but maybe please.....you want to forgive us. Let's now start with the training seminar.......

The difficulty is that if recruitment appears to be the raison d'etre of activity,

It not only appears to be, it is propounded as the main reason the "christian cong" exist at all. Social cohesion is only a means to an end..........

and then for extended periods not merely the individual publisher but the entire congregation experience no success, the consequential loss of morale could be substantial.

This ties in with uplifting assemblies. That's why you have 3 of which one is a biggie. Read "merchants of deception" and you'll see it is a clever ploy to keep people attached. 

If members stay firm in their faith

That's the problem, is it not. Many members to not stay firm in their faith. Check out the WT's and you'll soon find that faith in the visible representation of the WTS is important to remain a strong going JW

and enjoy the solidarity that comes from mutual striving (however fruitless),

Although there is encouragement to disciple making.......I fail to see the mutual striving. Maybe a covert jealousy. But the interesting thing is it does not invoke a major thrust to improve own skills and opportunities. I wonder how deeply entrenched this disciple making wish actually is? 

the position is sustainable.

As we all know the growth comes from a few areas: foreign language (poor bastards who all want a better life in a country where they have social isolation) and kids. 67% is falling away.......

If they are more like members of a pyramid scheme that must continue to grow in order to survive, however, the prospects may be bleak.

Quite a mathematical approach.....what this does not take into account is one major spoiler: END TIME!.........

Interesting article.  I would go for the stagnation rather than collapse scenario , however (assuming one of the nuclear threats to “the truth” doesn’t materializes - a major schism / high level scandal or WCG style acknowledgement of failings / profound change of doctrine (eg scrapping blood ban / 1914) / financial crisis.)

2 factors not mentioned in the article have to be considered.

(1)    Huge hurdle in leaving JWs

(2)     “The rewards of membership are found in possessing and proclaiming the truth, rather than in access to rituals, emotionally uplifting worship, or a range of social opportunities.”  I venture to disagree – I think the primary motivation of most JWs is the social circle – especially in mature JW countries where most JWs are 2^nd , 3^rd or even 4^th generation , with numerous interlocking family members & friends. Most JWs accept that there is very little “reward” in the ministry & go through the motions. They aren’t motivated or even expected to produce any recruits.

Very interesting article. I tend to think that stagnation and then a slow but steady decline mainly due to the reasons that Dozy brings up. I know there are a lot of folks who don't understand/fully believe the theology but who are JWs because all their friends and family are and to leave would mean to give them all up. The price is very high to leave.

Now, if something big happened and family groups decided to leave together, then it could come crashing down very quickly. I just don't seem them doing anything to upset the apple cart.

Wow - I fully concur with what this guy is saying.  I think there's a tipping point coming, and once that critical stage is reached (within the next 5 years - 2014), the exodus will be EN MASSE.  If I were a dub, and saw congregations shrinking massively and whole families leaving, something in the rear recesses of my mind would start going off and I'd be tempted to want to find out what is leading so many away, all AT THE SAME TIME!  Eventually word of ongoing deception by the higher-ups in what is being dispensed to the rank and file will spread, and just like leaven (but this time in a GOOD WAY!), info will spread through the entire mass.  I foresee this as a good thing, because at least people will not feel like they're the only ones who were duped; they'll have even more kinship with each other, because it will be a SHARED REALIZATION.  Media attention focussed on the phenomenon will only help speed the downfall.  Looking forward to interesting times ahead.

You just can't stop the flow of information! At present, the congregations (not counting 3rd world countries, but they will eventually follow) are full of people inwardly quashing doubts, but simultandeously wondering if they've been had.  Still going to the hall out of habit - but many staying home 'ill' (basically sick of the whole charade!). 

So many now openly admit that the world 'is FULL OF GOOD PEOPLE', and use that as the reason why they are doing the preaching work.  That's a huge disconnect from previous bs that we have to rescue 'worldlies who have been deceived by Satan'.  In my opinion, once you realize there are a lot of 'good people' in the world, the whole US vs. THEM mentality of the JW's begins to break down.  HALLELUJAH!

Just my 2c 

If I were a dub, and saw congregations shrinking massively and whole families leaving, something in the rear recesses of my mind would start going off and I'd be tempted to want to find out what is leading so many away, all AT THE SAME TIME!

Is it a coincidence that as of January 2009 the monthly publisher counts have been dropped from the Kingdom Ministry?

I.e., assuming such shrinkage occurs, would JWs know about anything happening beyond their own congregation, or congregations sharing their Kingdom Hall, or at most within nearby congregations within their circuit? Might they think that what they see is just a local phenomenon and that in other parts of the country / world, things are going well?

Does the Society have an inkling of something coming that might prompt such a large defection?

Fun times for speculators!

I'm not buying it.  The author's premise is based on JWs becoming discouraged/disillusioned because of lack of success in converting people in the ministry.  Well, as anyone who has been a JW should recognize--JWs don't care whether they convert anyone...they just go out in service to count time and keep the elders off their backs.

I venture to say that (at least in the U.S.), a majority of publishers have never had a Bible Student outside their family progress to baptism.  I know folks who have pioneered for years and never brought anyone to baptism.  It doesn't stop them from pioneering--much less cause them to leave the org.

I think it's interesting to note that while many assume the Internet is having a big impact on Witness growth this author does not mention it at all in his analysis of possible reasons for declining rates of growth. He also fails to mention, what I personally believe is a more important factor in recent stagnation, which is the abandonment of the "generation" teaching in 1995 which effectively meant Armageddon was postponed indefinitely.

Social ties are of course important, but would they be enough to keep people going if they en masse no longer believed in the religion or felt it had lost its way? I doubt it. Many on this forum seem to assume that very large numbers of Jehovah's Witnesses don't believe in it any more and only keep going because of a mixture of habit, fear of shunning, and social ties. I doubt that very much. Just because many of us here are in that position there is a danger of projecting our own feelings onto others. I tend to assume that the vast majority of Jehovah's Witnesses are what they outwardly appear: people who are generally highly committed to a strict belief system that promises salvation from impending calamity if they are obedient. Otherwise how do you explain the vast sacrifices they make in their lives for the faith?

A possibility that is not explored in the article is that Jehovah's Witnesses may return to strong growth. This is because the author's central argument is that societies have a 'carrying capacity' for groups like Jehovah's Witnesses and the reason their growth has slowed is because they are approaching their limit. I am not convinced. Even if there is a 'carrying capacity' for Jehovah's Witnesses I don't think it has been reached or that that is the reason why growth has slowed down. I think internal organizational factors are much more important.

Jehovah's Witnesses have gone through periods of poor growth before, even leaving aside the period of disappointment after 1975. During the 1960s growth slowed right down almost as much as in recent years, and yet they bounced back. I don't think it should be ruled out that they could pull it off again.

During the 1960s growth slowed right down almost as much as in recent years, and yet they bounced back. I don't think it should be ruled out that they could pull it off again.

And that growth was fully attributable to the "stay alive 'til '75!" hysteria. Without a hard date and the accompanying urgency ("only 90 more months until 1975!") the growth doesn't happen.

Another period of decent growth was from the mid-80's to mid-90's, with (1) the remaining promise of "Armageddon before the generation of 1914 dies out" and (2) opening up of the Iron Curtain and subsequent mass proselytization. Since then, of course, the "generation" teaching has changed a couple of times and religious fervor has cooled off in Russia and other Eastern bloc countries.

I.e, to grow as much as in the past, it appears they need either (a) something to whip up enthusiasm to a fever pitch or (b) a brand new virtually untouched territory.

I don't see anything happening with regard to (a). There's still too many people around, including (especially?) at Bethel who wouldn't go for a new hard (or even soft) date. And without a date, where is the sense of urgency?

With regard to (b), there's China and India and the Muslim world. I don't see anything opening up there soon.

I'm thinking stagnation will set in, with -1 to 1% growth in the more advanced nations and 2-3% in areas where the population is more inclined to clutch at any straw offering a glimmer of hope for the future.

I think many of us assume the Internet will play a role in reaching unbaptized children of JWs, becuase the Internet assisted so many of us with our exit. You're correct, though. It's only an assumption. Further demonization of the Internet by Watchtower could 'stop the bleeding' in some cases. It all remains to be seen.

I personally believer, however, had my "worldly" classmates had Google on a cellphone, during my school years, some seriously truthful JW debunking would have taken place. Teachers and students wouldn't of had to settle for whatever stock WT defense I gave them, regarding indefensible beliefs.